For updated Census 2010 participation rates taken from March 30th for Capital Area cities, counties, and all cities over 50,000 in Texas, see this posting from the Census Coordination Blog.
Chris Ramser
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
So how good are Population Projections?
If you are using population projections that are publicly available, chances are you’re using the Texas State Data Center (TXSDC) as your resource. They’ve got several projection scenarios available and other planning organizations like the Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization utilized a modified version of two of their scenarios for the 2035 transportation plan.
How do the estimates compare to the projections? Well, the Census Bureau released population estimates yesterday for counties and if you compare those numbers to the projection made by TXSDC using the Scenario 3.0, then that projection was off only 2.1%.
So what does that mean, are we growing 2.1% faster than we were from 2000-2007?
Maybe, but the Census Bureau and the TXSDC use slightly different methodologies that could attribute for some of the difference. But, still 2.1% is pretty good, I think.
Here’s a look at this data for CAPCOG counties:
(click image for larger)
How do the estimates compare to the projections? Well, the Census Bureau released population estimates yesterday for counties and if you compare those numbers to the projection made by TXSDC using the Scenario 3.0, then that projection was off only 2.1%.
So what does that mean, are we growing 2.1% faster than we were from 2000-2007?
Maybe, but the Census Bureau and the TXSDC use slightly different methodologies that could attribute for some of the difference. But, still 2.1% is pretty good, I think.
Here’s a look at this data for CAPCOG counties:
(click image for larger)
Hays, Caldwell, and Williamson are pretty much dead on. The rural areas seem not as accurate, but I think that might be due more to the methodological differences.
So what will we look like in 10 years based on those projections. Population for the region would be 2.37 million, which is over 550K more than current population estimates.
(Click image for larger)
Of course all this assumes the population estimates are accurate. I guess we’ll have to wait until the Census 2010 data is released in April 2011 to see how we really measure up.
Chris Ramser
So what will we look like in 10 years based on those projections. Population for the region would be 2.37 million, which is over 550K more than current population estimates.
(Click image for larger)
Of course all this assumes the population estimates are accurate. I guess we’ll have to wait until the Census 2010 data is released in April 2011 to see how we really measure up.
Chris Ramser
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Tracking Census 2010 Participation Rates while the Census is being conducted
Yes that's right, it is being done! Check out this posting from our Census coordination blog.
And here are the Top 10 cities in the Capital Area region.
For all cities in the region, see this spreadsheet. We'll probably look at this again in the next coming weeks.
Data from the Census Bureau's Take 10 Map, http://2010.census.gov/2010census/take10map/
Chris Ramser
Here's a few highlights from that post.
The current national participation rate stands at 16% as of March 23rd. Here's what the rate looks like for Capital Area counties versus the Census 2000 rate.
The current national participation rate stands at 16% as of March 23rd. Here's what the rate looks like for Capital Area counties versus the Census 2000 rate.
And here are the Top 10 cities in the Capital Area region.
For all cities in the region, see this spreadsheet. We'll probably look at this again in the next coming weeks.
Data from the Census Bureau's Take 10 Map, http://2010.census.gov/2010census/take10map/
Chris Ramser
Monday, March 22, 2010
Reducing Illegal Dumping- Are Signs Effective?
Many communities struggle with the challenge of illegal dumping and the best way to address the issue. Within the CAPCOG region, there is a Regional Environmental Task Force (RETF) which is a multi-jurisdictional law enforcement effort formed to address the problems associated with illegal dumping and other environmental crimes.
The Chair of this Task Force, Sidney Parker of Travis County, has been gathering some data over the last couple of years regarding the effectiveness of No Dumping Signs. With limited funding and manpower, No Dumping Signs can be a low cost way to address this challenge – but are the signs effective?
According to Sidney’s data, the answer is yes, but only if the signs are used appropriately.
First of all, the most effective signs have the following characteristics:
- Made of metal
- Large size
- In English and Spanish
- Are placed strategically
Here are the signs that the CAPCOG region is now using:
An important note about the placement – Sidney has found that placing a sign ONLY at the problem dump site is not effective. Most likely, the dumper has already made their decision by this point, so the sign does not serve as a deterrent. On the other hand, if signs are placed at entry points along the way to the dump site - as well as at the dump site - the signs are much more effective.
Sidney’s theory is that this placement adds more psychological value to the signs – potential dumpers see the message over and over, not only when they are going to dump, but regularly along their normal driving routes.
Do the signs actually reduce instances of illegal dumping?
Here is a chart that shows, as an example, five dump sites tracked over a year and a half. For these five sites, dumping was reduced by 100 instances or 68%.
(Click image for larger version)
What does this mean regarding costs for a County?
One sign costs about $276 when the cost of the sign and the labor to install is included (this cost includes about $26 for the sign and post and about $250 in labor which includes employee’s time, travel, and insurance). It is estimated to cost about $500 for the County to clean up one illegal dumping instance. So if we look at these same five sites as an example, the County saved about $53,000 over the year and half by installing the No Dumping signs.
(Click image for larger version)
It is impossible to quantify exactly how much of this reduction can be attributed to the signs alone as opposed to other contributing factors, but we do know that sites with signs do see a decrease in dumping.
Of course, signs alone will not solve the problem of illegal dumping. But, if done right, they can be a low cost way to have an effect on a problem that plagues many communities.
Ashley Fisher
The Chair of this Task Force, Sidney Parker of Travis County, has been gathering some data over the last couple of years regarding the effectiveness of No Dumping Signs. With limited funding and manpower, No Dumping Signs can be a low cost way to address this challenge – but are the signs effective?
According to Sidney’s data, the answer is yes, but only if the signs are used appropriately.
First of all, the most effective signs have the following characteristics:
- Made of metal
- Large size
- In English and Spanish
- Are placed strategically
Here are the signs that the CAPCOG region is now using:
An important note about the placement – Sidney has found that placing a sign ONLY at the problem dump site is not effective. Most likely, the dumper has already made their decision by this point, so the sign does not serve as a deterrent. On the other hand, if signs are placed at entry points along the way to the dump site - as well as at the dump site - the signs are much more effective.
Sidney’s theory is that this placement adds more psychological value to the signs – potential dumpers see the message over and over, not only when they are going to dump, but regularly along their normal driving routes.
Do the signs actually reduce instances of illegal dumping?
Here is a chart that shows, as an example, five dump sites tracked over a year and a half. For these five sites, dumping was reduced by 100 instances or 68%.
(Click image for larger version)
What does this mean regarding costs for a County?
One sign costs about $276 when the cost of the sign and the labor to install is included (this cost includes about $26 for the sign and post and about $250 in labor which includes employee’s time, travel, and insurance). It is estimated to cost about $500 for the County to clean up one illegal dumping instance. So if we look at these same five sites as an example, the County saved about $53,000 over the year and half by installing the No Dumping signs.
(Click image for larger version)
It is impossible to quantify exactly how much of this reduction can be attributed to the signs alone as opposed to other contributing factors, but we do know that sites with signs do see a decrease in dumping.
Of course, signs alone will not solve the problem of illegal dumping. But, if done right, they can be a low cost way to have an effect on a problem that plagues many communities.
Ashley Fisher
Thursday, March 11, 2010
Is Austin Underserved in Health Care...or is the Region?
We received an interesting follow-up question to our last post: what happens if you look at just Travis County?
The CAPCOG region consists of the following counties: Bastrop, Blanco, Burnet, Caldwell, Fayette, Hays, Lee, Llano, Travis, and Williamson. It's about 1.8 million people, with Travis County accounting for about 56% of the total population. As we mentioned in the last post, there are approximately 314 health care practitioner and support jobs per 10,000 people in the CAPCOG region, compared to 399 for the US. Texas comes in at 365.
Narrow it down to just Travis County and you get a different story. There are approximately 404 health care practitioner and support jobs per 10,000 people in Travis County--five more jobs than the US at 399. So maybe the more appropriate title would have been: Is Austin Underserved in Health Care...or is the Region?
Here's the Travis County versus US jobs per 10,000 ratio for all the occupation categories we have data for under health care practitioner and support jobs. Similar to how we presented the data in the last post, the number next to the occupation title is jobs per 10,000 people in Travis County and the number in parentheses is the US value. Data again is from EMSI. Calculations--and thus any errors--are ours.
Labor markets are regional so I'd hesitate to read too much into this Travis County versus Rest of Region without careful study. People can live and work in different counties and sorting out all the nuances of labor markets is messy business. But somebody should take this on.
Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants 37.24 (49.99)
Registered nurses 74.79 (85.03)
Home health aides 27.96 (33.06)
Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses 20.33 (24.30)
Healthcare practitioners and technical workers, all other 0.59 (1.94)
Dentists, general 2.30 (3.19)
Medical transcriptionists 2.35 (3.17)
Psychiatric technicians 0.89 (1.69)
Physical therapist assistants 1.30 (2.07)
Medical and clinical laboratory technicians 4.32 (5.05)
Opticians, dispensing 1.69 (2.36)
Occupational therapist assistants 0.42 (0.90)
Physician assistants 2.08 (2.53)
Healthcare support workers, all other 6.13 (6.52)
Recreational therapists 0.41 (0.77)
Cardiovascular technologists and technicians 1.35 (1.65)
Dietetic technicians 0.55 (0.86)
Occupational health and safety specialists 1.54 (1.78)
Medical equipment preparers 1.61 (1.84)
Psychiatric aides 4.67 (4.87)
Dental hygienists 5.66 (5.81)
Prosthodontists 0.39 (0.46)
Oral and maxillofacial surgeons 0.53 (0.59)
Audiologists 0.65 (0.69)
Radiation therapists 0.57 (0.54)
Chiropractors 2.13 (2.09)
Dentists, all other specialists 0.63 (0.58)
Nuclear medicine technologists 0.83 (0.78)
Healthcare technologists and technicians, all other 2.84 (2.79)
Orthodontists 0.67 (0.59)
Pharmacy aides 2.16 (2.06)
Occupational therapist aides 0.52 (0.32)
Orthotists and prosthetists 0.77 (0.56)
Radiologic technologists and technicians 7.16 (6.89)
Optometrists 1.96 (1.68)
Physical therapist aides 1.84 (1.52)
Emergency medical technicians and paramedics 7.15 (6.78)
Athletic trainers 1.01 (0.58)
Occupational health and safety technicians 0.95 (0.43)
Respiratory therapy technicians 1.22 (0.57)
Diagnostic medical sonographers 2.40 (1.67)
Medical and clinical laboratory technologists 6.27 (5.54)
Dietitians and nutritionists 3.23 (2.44)
Podiatrists 2.19 (1.30)
Veterinary assistants and laboratory animal caretakers 3.55 (2.66)
Health diagnosing and treating practitioners, all other 3.83 (2.88)
Speech-language pathologists 5.89 (4.82)
Therapists, all other 3.38 (2.28)
Occupational therapists 4.84 (3.61)
Massage therapists 4.83 (3.53)
Pharmacists 10.14 (8.82)
Dental assistants 11.20 (9.77)
Surgical technologists 4.56 (2.97)
Veterinarians 4.20 (2.38)
Physical therapists 8.73 (6.79)
Medical records and health information technicians 7.56 (5.60)
Respiratory therapists 5.39 (3.40)
Veterinary technologists and technicians 5.43 (2.56)
Physicians and surgeons 33.85 (28.98)
Pharmacy technicians 16.53 (10.77)
Medical assistants 23.71 (16.27)
Brian Kelsey
The CAPCOG region consists of the following counties: Bastrop, Blanco, Burnet, Caldwell, Fayette, Hays, Lee, Llano, Travis, and Williamson. It's about 1.8 million people, with Travis County accounting for about 56% of the total population. As we mentioned in the last post, there are approximately 314 health care practitioner and support jobs per 10,000 people in the CAPCOG region, compared to 399 for the US. Texas comes in at 365.
Narrow it down to just Travis County and you get a different story. There are approximately 404 health care practitioner and support jobs per 10,000 people in Travis County--five more jobs than the US at 399. So maybe the more appropriate title would have been: Is Austin Underserved in Health Care...or is the Region?
Here's the Travis County versus US jobs per 10,000 ratio for all the occupation categories we have data for under health care practitioner and support jobs. Similar to how we presented the data in the last post, the number next to the occupation title is jobs per 10,000 people in Travis County and the number in parentheses is the US value. Data again is from EMSI. Calculations--and thus any errors--are ours.
Labor markets are regional so I'd hesitate to read too much into this Travis County versus Rest of Region without careful study. People can live and work in different counties and sorting out all the nuances of labor markets is messy business. But somebody should take this on.
Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants 37.24 (49.99)
Registered nurses 74.79 (85.03)
Home health aides 27.96 (33.06)
Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses 20.33 (24.30)
Healthcare practitioners and technical workers, all other 0.59 (1.94)
Dentists, general 2.30 (3.19)
Medical transcriptionists 2.35 (3.17)
Psychiatric technicians 0.89 (1.69)
Physical therapist assistants 1.30 (2.07)
Medical and clinical laboratory technicians 4.32 (5.05)
Opticians, dispensing 1.69 (2.36)
Occupational therapist assistants 0.42 (0.90)
Physician assistants 2.08 (2.53)
Healthcare support workers, all other 6.13 (6.52)
Recreational therapists 0.41 (0.77)
Cardiovascular technologists and technicians 1.35 (1.65)
Dietetic technicians 0.55 (0.86)
Occupational health and safety specialists 1.54 (1.78)
Medical equipment preparers 1.61 (1.84)
Psychiatric aides 4.67 (4.87)
Dental hygienists 5.66 (5.81)
Prosthodontists 0.39 (0.46)
Oral and maxillofacial surgeons 0.53 (0.59)
Audiologists 0.65 (0.69)
Radiation therapists 0.57 (0.54)
Chiropractors 2.13 (2.09)
Dentists, all other specialists 0.63 (0.58)
Nuclear medicine technologists 0.83 (0.78)
Healthcare technologists and technicians, all other 2.84 (2.79)
Orthodontists 0.67 (0.59)
Pharmacy aides 2.16 (2.06)
Occupational therapist aides 0.52 (0.32)
Orthotists and prosthetists 0.77 (0.56)
Radiologic technologists and technicians 7.16 (6.89)
Optometrists 1.96 (1.68)
Physical therapist aides 1.84 (1.52)
Emergency medical technicians and paramedics 7.15 (6.78)
Athletic trainers 1.01 (0.58)
Occupational health and safety technicians 0.95 (0.43)
Respiratory therapy technicians 1.22 (0.57)
Diagnostic medical sonographers 2.40 (1.67)
Medical and clinical laboratory technologists 6.27 (5.54)
Dietitians and nutritionists 3.23 (2.44)
Podiatrists 2.19 (1.30)
Veterinary assistants and laboratory animal caretakers 3.55 (2.66)
Health diagnosing and treating practitioners, all other 3.83 (2.88)
Speech-language pathologists 5.89 (4.82)
Therapists, all other 3.38 (2.28)
Occupational therapists 4.84 (3.61)
Massage therapists 4.83 (3.53)
Pharmacists 10.14 (8.82)
Dental assistants 11.20 (9.77)
Surgical technologists 4.56 (2.97)
Veterinarians 4.20 (2.38)
Physical therapists 8.73 (6.79)
Medical records and health information technicians 7.56 (5.60)
Respiratory therapists 5.39 (3.40)
Veterinary technologists and technicians 5.43 (2.56)
Physicians and surgeons 33.85 (28.98)
Pharmacy technicians 16.53 (10.77)
Medical assistants 23.71 (16.27)
Brian Kelsey
Is Austin Underserved in Health Care?
There are various ways to interpret "underserved," but one way to tackle this issue is to look at the labor market. According to our calculations using data from EMSI, there are approximately 56,000 health care practitioner and support jobs in the CAPCOG region, compared to 895,000 in Texas and 12.2 million in the US. Adjusting for population, that's 314 jobs per 10,000 people in the CAPCOG region, compared to 365 in Texas and 399 in the US.
So the answer is: maybe. There are many reasons why the ratio of jobs to people may be different in Austin compared to other regions: differences in technology and associated labor needs, hospital staffing patterns, community health, presence of a medical school, etc. But the gap between 314 here and 399 at the national level is substantial.
Here are the top ten occupations that appear to be most underrepresented in the CAPCOG region compared to the US average. Number next to the occupation name is jobs per 10,000 people in the CAPCOG region and number in parentheses is the US value.
Registered nurses 54.41 (85.03)
Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants 32.91 (49.99)
Home health aides 22.71 (33.06)
Licensed practical and vocational nurses 17.19 (24.30)
Physicians and surgeons 24.49 (28.98)
Health care support workers, all other 4.35 (6.52)
Medical and clinical lab technicians 3.04 (5.05)
Radiological technologists and technicians 5.07 (6.89)
Health care practitioners and technical workers, all other 0.43 (1.94)
Medical transcriptionists 1.79 (3.17)
Another interesting fact: we must love our pets in Austin. There are only four occupations where the jobs per 10,000 people ratio locally exceeds the US average by more than one job, and three of them are found in veterinarian offices.
Brian Kelsey
So the answer is: maybe. There are many reasons why the ratio of jobs to people may be different in Austin compared to other regions: differences in technology and associated labor needs, hospital staffing patterns, community health, presence of a medical school, etc. But the gap between 314 here and 399 at the national level is substantial.
Here are the top ten occupations that appear to be most underrepresented in the CAPCOG region compared to the US average. Number next to the occupation name is jobs per 10,000 people in the CAPCOG region and number in parentheses is the US value.
Registered nurses 54.41 (85.03)
Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants 32.91 (49.99)
Home health aides 22.71 (33.06)
Licensed practical and vocational nurses 17.19 (24.30)
Physicians and surgeons 24.49 (28.98)
Health care support workers, all other 4.35 (6.52)
Medical and clinical lab technicians 3.04 (5.05)
Radiological technologists and technicians 5.07 (6.89)
Health care practitioners and technical workers, all other 0.43 (1.94)
Medical transcriptionists 1.79 (3.17)
Another interesting fact: we must love our pets in Austin. There are only four occupations where the jobs per 10,000 people ratio locally exceeds the US average by more than one job, and three of them are found in veterinarian offices.
Brian Kelsey
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