Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Economic Recovery
Claudia Grisales wrote a nice piece on forecasts for the Austin-Round Rock economy in today's Austin American-Statesman. Her article, Austin's economy recovering, but jobs will come later, features data and analysis from CAPCOG.
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Mapping for Everyone
Check out ESRI's Mapping for Everyone website. You can load the map with several types of ESRI's current demographic data, such as unemployment rate, median household income, and population density. ESRI posted a blog last night announcing the new, free service.
Friday, October 2, 2009
Recession Check-In
We’re now 21 months into the recession, and some economists are pointing to September as the possible end date. Prognosticators have taken their fair share of criticism over the past 21 months, but my faith has been somewhat restored lately. IHS Global Insight early this year predicted that total employment in Austin-Round Rock would decline by less than one percent during 2009, and so far that’s looking like a pretty good bet. According to the August report from the Texas Workforce Commission (TWC), total nonfarm employment in Austin-Round Rock declined by 7,200 jobs, or 0.9 percent, between August 2008 and August 2009. Here are the talking points on specific sectors:
· Manufacturing and construction continue to bear the brunt of the recession here, like in many other regions around the U.S. Manufacturing employment in Austin-Round Rock totaled 51,600 jobs in August 2009, down 11.5 percent from one year earlier. Construction and related industries were down by 7.3 percent.
· Tech manufacturing continues its downward slide. Computer and electronic product manufacturing was down to 25,800 jobs in August 2009, a 13.7 percent decline from one year earlier. This is not a new story, so here’s some historical perspective: According to TWC’s data, the last time monthly employment in that sector totaled fewer than 26,000 jobs was October 1990. The peak was 49,900 jobs in January 2001.
· We must love our food and entertainment here. Despite consumers dialing back on discretionary spending, restaurants and bars added 2,400 jobs between August 2008 and August 2009, a 3.8 percent gain. Population growth can explain part of that increase, but I’m still impressed.
· Government spending may be propping up employment in other sectors (e.g., transportation, utilities), but it’s playing only a minor role in direct job creation. Total government employment in Austin-Round Rock grew by only 1,900 jobs, or 1.2 percent, between August 2008 and August 2009. Interestingly, local government added 4,500 jobs, while state government lost 2,500 jobs. Federal employment was virtually unchanged.
Reminder: We recently got a 2009Q3 update from one of our other data providers. So if you’re interested in the economists’ best guesses about which industries and occupations will lead us out of the recession, let us know. Brian Kelsey
· Manufacturing and construction continue to bear the brunt of the recession here, like in many other regions around the U.S. Manufacturing employment in Austin-Round Rock totaled 51,600 jobs in August 2009, down 11.5 percent from one year earlier. Construction and related industries were down by 7.3 percent.
· Tech manufacturing continues its downward slide. Computer and electronic product manufacturing was down to 25,800 jobs in August 2009, a 13.7 percent decline from one year earlier. This is not a new story, so here’s some historical perspective: According to TWC’s data, the last time monthly employment in that sector totaled fewer than 26,000 jobs was October 1990. The peak was 49,900 jobs in January 2001.
· We must love our food and entertainment here. Despite consumers dialing back on discretionary spending, restaurants and bars added 2,400 jobs between August 2008 and August 2009, a 3.8 percent gain. Population growth can explain part of that increase, but I’m still impressed.
· Government spending may be propping up employment in other sectors (e.g., transportation, utilities), but it’s playing only a minor role in direct job creation. Total government employment in Austin-Round Rock grew by only 1,900 jobs, or 1.2 percent, between August 2008 and August 2009. Interestingly, local government added 4,500 jobs, while state government lost 2,500 jobs. Federal employment was virtually unchanged.
Reminder: We recently got a 2009Q3 update from one of our other data providers. So if you’re interested in the economists’ best guesses about which industries and occupations will lead us out of the recession, let us know. Brian Kelsey
Eds and Meds Now Just Meds?
Education and health care have propped up labor markets in many regions of the U.S. during this recession. Michael Mandel's post this morning, Record Drop in Education Jobs, suggests that we may be looking for a new catchphrase. Brian Kelsey
Friday, September 25, 2009
Career and Technical Education
I was glad to hear this week that Texas Comptroller Susan Combs is making $5 million in scholarship money available for career and technical education (Career and Technical Scholarship Fund). Spend a few minutes with folks like Mike Midgley at Austin Community College or Michael Bettersworth at Texas State Technical College and you’ll quickly understand why CTE needs more attention. It’s a vital part of what makes states and regions economically competitive. CTE is also a pathway to higher wage jobs and better standards of living for thousands of people—young and not so young—each year. Corporate relocations and expansions may get the headlines and the glory in this profession, but workforce competitiveness is the real story that separates leading regions from the rest of the pack.
We got new 2009Q3 data on industries and occupations this week from one of our providers, EMSI. I’ll let the numbers do the rest of the talking about the importance of CTE:
· 71 percent of jobs in the Austin-Round Rock region require, on average, less than a bachelor’s degree.
· 70 percent of net new jobs expected between 2009 and 2019 will require less than a bachelor’s degree.
· Jobs requiring on-the-job training only (i.e. no postsecondary degree of any kind) pay an average of $15.11 per hour. Jobs requiring an associate’s degree pay an average of $22.31 per hour.
· Registered nurse is the fastest growing occupation in Austin-Round Rock requiring an associate’s degree. EMSI’s economists predict that we’ll see a net gain of approximately 3,200 registered nurse jobs by 2019. Add in turnover and retirements and that number grows to 4,700.
· Many of the jobs that contribute to Austin-Round Rock’s competitive advantage in specialized workforce require less than a bachelor’s degree. Examples include Electronic Engineering Techs ($21.15 per hour), Semiconductor Processors ($17.71), Industrial Engineering Techs ($23.24), and Environmental Science and Protection Techs ($22.03).
· 61 percent of net new green jobs expected between 2009 and 2019 will require less than a bachelor’s degree.
Finally, I sat through a pretty good training on Career Clusters (Achieve Texas) at our statewide COG meeting last week. For those of you working in the secondary school system, or the parents among you with children in K-12, we have some helpful information for you, too. Go check out the list of Career Clusters and Career Pathways on the Achieve Texas website and then come back to this email. Here’s a list of the 16 Career Clusters ranked by expected annual job openings in Austin-Round Rock between 2009 and 2019:
1. Business, Management, and Administration
2. Marketing, Sales, and Service
3. Hospitality and Tourism
4. Transportation, Distribution, and Logistics
5. Human Services
6. Health Science
7. Agriculture, Food, and Natural Resources
8. Finance
9. Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM)
10. Architecture and Construction
11. Education and Training
12. Arts, A/V Technology, and Communications
13. Government and Public Administration
14. Information Technology
15. Law, Public Safety, Corrections, and Security
16. Manufacturing
Brian Kelsey
We got new 2009Q3 data on industries and occupations this week from one of our providers, EMSI. I’ll let the numbers do the rest of the talking about the importance of CTE:
· 71 percent of jobs in the Austin-Round Rock region require, on average, less than a bachelor’s degree.
· 70 percent of net new jobs expected between 2009 and 2019 will require less than a bachelor’s degree.
· Jobs requiring on-the-job training only (i.e. no postsecondary degree of any kind) pay an average of $15.11 per hour. Jobs requiring an associate’s degree pay an average of $22.31 per hour.
· Registered nurse is the fastest growing occupation in Austin-Round Rock requiring an associate’s degree. EMSI’s economists predict that we’ll see a net gain of approximately 3,200 registered nurse jobs by 2019. Add in turnover and retirements and that number grows to 4,700.
· Many of the jobs that contribute to Austin-Round Rock’s competitive advantage in specialized workforce require less than a bachelor’s degree. Examples include Electronic Engineering Techs ($21.15 per hour), Semiconductor Processors ($17.71), Industrial Engineering Techs ($23.24), and Environmental Science and Protection Techs ($22.03).
· 61 percent of net new green jobs expected between 2009 and 2019 will require less than a bachelor’s degree.
Finally, I sat through a pretty good training on Career Clusters (Achieve Texas) at our statewide COG meeting last week. For those of you working in the secondary school system, or the parents among you with children in K-12, we have some helpful information for you, too. Go check out the list of Career Clusters and Career Pathways on the Achieve Texas website and then come back to this email. Here’s a list of the 16 Career Clusters ranked by expected annual job openings in Austin-Round Rock between 2009 and 2019:
1. Business, Management, and Administration
2. Marketing, Sales, and Service
3. Hospitality and Tourism
4. Transportation, Distribution, and Logistics
5. Human Services
6. Health Science
7. Agriculture, Food, and Natural Resources
8. Finance
9. Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM)
10. Architecture and Construction
11. Education and Training
12. Arts, A/V Technology, and Communications
13. Government and Public Administration
14. Information Technology
15. Law, Public Safety, Corrections, and Security
16. Manufacturing
Brian Kelsey
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
2008 American Community Survey Released
If you haven’t heard yet or if perhaps you've forgotten, new Census data in the form of the American Community Survey gives covered areas a fresh look at socio-economic and demographic characteristics each year. The Austin American-Statesman's article, "State's rate of uninsured was highest in the nation, census shows," covers some of this new data released today.
Median Home Value
Likewise, the median home value (median value of owner occupied housing units) is also on a steady upward trend from 2005 to 2008. Despite the fact that the ACS estimate in 2006 was lower than the 2005 estimate, the change was still well within the margin of error of the survey. However, the increase from 2006 to 2007 was greater than the margin of error.
(Click image for larger version)
Below is a distribution of renter occupied housing units by gross rent category. There is a definite increase in the number of renters in certain categories such as $1,000 to $1,249, but it is a little difficult to quantify the change occurring because it is impossible to adjust the data for inflation beyond the adjustment that the Census Bureau does to the current year of the estimate. It is likely that a lot of the change is due to new units in those price categories.
(Click image for larger version)
Stay tuned for future ACS releases.
Not all of the American Community Survey data was released today. Most of the single year estimates covering areas with 65,000 or more were released, however, certain economic data covering poverty, food stamp recipients, and family income are being held back until September 29th due to some errors. And all three year estimates for areas of 20,000 or more will be released on October 27th.
To mark this release, we’ve put together a couple of examples comparing single year estimates for the Austin metro region. For more about this Census release, visit their press release.
Median Household Income
The median household income for the Austin metro area has been increasing over the past few years according to the ACS estimates. The data in the chart below shows both the estimate (in blue) and the upper and lower confidence interval (in yellow) from 2005 - 2008. Although the increase from 2006 to 2007 appears to be significant (about $2,500), it is important to note that the increase was still within the margin of error in the survey. But looking over several years of ACS data, the trend does show a statistically significant increase in the Median Household Income. For example, the lower confidence interval for 2008 is higher than the upper confidence interval for 2006. Data is inflation adjusted to 2008 dollars.
(Click image for larger version)
To mark this release, we’ve put together a couple of examples comparing single year estimates for the Austin metro region. For more about this Census release, visit their press release.
Median Household Income
The median household income for the Austin metro area has been increasing over the past few years according to the ACS estimates. The data in the chart below shows both the estimate (in blue) and the upper and lower confidence interval (in yellow) from 2005 - 2008. Although the increase from 2006 to 2007 appears to be significant (about $2,500), it is important to note that the increase was still within the margin of error in the survey. But looking over several years of ACS data, the trend does show a statistically significant increase in the Median Household Income. For example, the lower confidence interval for 2008 is higher than the upper confidence interval for 2006. Data is inflation adjusted to 2008 dollars.
(Click image for larger version)
Median Home Value
Likewise, the median home value (median value of owner occupied housing units) is also on a steady upward trend from 2005 to 2008. Despite the fact that the ACS estimate in 2006 was lower than the 2005 estimate, the change was still well within the margin of error of the survey. However, the increase from 2006 to 2007 was greater than the margin of error.
(Click Image for larger version)
Median Gross Rent
It is also not surprising that the median gross rent has been on the increase as well. The increase from 2005 to 2006 was greater than the margin of error. And overall, the median gross rent is at least $40 higher in 2008 than it was in 2005 (inflation was adjusted).
(Click image for larger version)
Below is a distribution of renter occupied housing units by gross rent category. There is a definite increase in the number of renters in certain categories such as $1,000 to $1,249, but it is a little difficult to quantify the change occurring because it is impossible to adjust the data for inflation beyond the adjustment that the Census Bureau does to the current year of the estimate. It is likely that a lot of the change is due to new units in those price categories.
(Click image for larger version)
Stay tuned for future ACS releases.
Chris Ramser
Monday, September 21, 2009
Life Sciences
The Austin American-Statesman ran an interesting article today on venture capital activity in the life sciences sector (Biotech industry tries to shrug off setbacks). Definitions vary for what exactly belongs to the life sciences/biotechnology sector, but its footprint in Austin-Round Rock may surprise you. We currently have approximately 1,300 establishments and 52,500 jobs in the life sciences cluster, up from 43,000 jobs in 2002 (22%). Forecasters predict that our life sciences cluster could grow by another 14,000 jobs (27%) by 2019. (Source: EMSI). Brian Kelsey
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