Unemployment Indicators

We've watched the unemployment rate for the Austin-Round Rock metro area climb from 3.7% at the beginning of the recession in December 2007 to 6.2% in March 2009. Unemployment in Travis County now stands at 5.9%. We see these figures reported on every month, but what do we really know about how the recession is impacting our labor market? Knowing simply whether the unemployment rate is moving up or down is an important (lagging) indicator of general economic conditions, but it doesn't provide much in the way of useful information.

We've been working on this question lately with Workforce Solutions Capital Area. When people file for unemployment insurance--UI claimants in workforce parlance--they are asked several questions such as race/ethnicity, educational attainment, and military service. Using the UI claimant records (with all personal identifiers like name and address deleted), we were able to put together a more complete picture of the people behind the unemployment statistics we see reported every month. A few disclaimers: (1) Not all workers are covered by UI so this analysis leaves out a lot of folks (e.g., self-employment); (2) the data includes only people who filed for benefits; and (3) we've only scratched the surface so there's much more to be learned.

Here's a bit about what we've uncovered so far:

• 29,319 people filed for UI in Travis County between December 2007 and February 2009.


• African-Americans and possibly other minority groups are disproportionately represented among UI claimants, compared to their shares of the total population.


• Despite the fact that this recession is impacting all segments of the labor market--low-skill to high-skill--education is making a difference. In Travis County, 42.4% of the population age 25 and older has at least a bachelor's degree. People with at least a bachelor's degree have represented only 9.2% of all UI claimants since the beginning of the recession.


• Average age for UI claimants is 39. One out of five UI claimants is age 50 or older.


• The recession is impacting all career fields, but some more than others. Production workers have been hit especially hard. Production workers make up about 3.7% of all workers in Travis County. Yet, they represented about 10% of all UI claimants.

We've posted a short presentation called Unemployment Trends in Travis County on the CAPCOG website, which summarizes these findings.

Mining information on UI claimants can provide a valuable planning tool for economic and workforce development programs. We look forward to hearing your ideas on how we can use it.

Brian Kelsey