Recession Ending in 2009Q4?

We got the latest economic forecast for the Austin-Round Rock economy from IHS Global Insight today. According to one set of experts (we also use data from Moody's Economy.com and a few other sources), the Austin-Round Rock economy may turn the corner as early as 2009Q4.

IHS Global Insight predicts a slight increase in gross metro product in 2009Q4, ending a string of four consecutive quarters of decline (not adjusted for inflation). The company also expects 2009Q4 to mark the end of declining total employment in Austin-Round Rock.

Here's a table showing expected change in employment by industry between 2009Q2 and 2010Q2. Click on the image for a larger version.



We may see these numbers improve in the next update from IHS Global Insight, because the company estimates our current unemployment rate at 6.9%. According to the Texas Workforce Commission, that figure may be more like 5.8%.

Brian Kelsey