Austin-Round Rock Rebound in 2009Q4?

We recently received new forecast data for the Austin-Round Rock economy from IHS Global Insight. According to the experts there, we should be seeing signs of growth again in 2009Q4, and we may even be there already. Here’s a chart showing year-to-year change in real gross metro product for Austin-Round Rock since the start of the recession in 2007Q4:

(click image for larger version)

If you look at their data on a quarter-to-quarter basis, the Austin-Round Rock economy may already be in positive territory. Global Insight estimates that real gross metro product for our region declined in 2008Q4 (-1.5%) and 2009Q1 (-0.6%), and then reversed direction in 2009Q2 (+0.9%). So, depending on your preference for how we run the numbers, this could be really good news.

Here are some other 2009 predictions for Austin-Round Rock from their August release:

Population growth: 59,520 (+3.5%)

Housing starts: virtually unchanged overall from 2008 at around 11,300 total units, but different stories in single-family versus multi-family. Global Insight predicts a 27% increase in private single-family housing starts and a 32% decline in private multi-family housing starts.

Employment: -4,700 jobs or -0.6%. I think this may be a little rosy, because they have unemployment topping out at 7.1% in 2009Q4, and we learned today from the Texas Workforce Commission that we hit 7.3% in July.

Income: flat…again. Global Insight estimates that real per capita income fell below $31,000 in 2008Q3, and we’re currently no better off in this respect than we were in 2004.

We’ll get the next round of data from them in November. Stay tuned.

Brian Kelsey

Austin-Round Rock Data Snapshot

Thanks to the Austin Chapter of the Texas Recruiters Association for inviting us to speak at their August meeting today. Brian Kelsey did a short presentation on the State of the Labor Market in Austin-Round Rock. Click on the link to download a PDF copy.

Discussion topics included:

• Despite employment falling by more than 3% in 2002 as Austin-Round Rock struggled to get out of the last recession, population in the region still increased by 30,000 people. How is the current recession affecting population growth?
• Mobility is a critical part of understanding the regional labor market. 55% of workers in Austin live someplace other than Austin.
• Talent is our greatest competitive advantage, but we have serious challenges that need addressing. According to the latest figures available from the U.S. Census Bureau, 16% of Austin residents age 25+ do not have a high school diploma, including 41% of all Hispanics.
• Thanks to groups like the E3 Alliance, the message about linking education to economic and workforce development is getting out there, but more work is ahead of us. Here's a statistic worth considering: of the jobs in Travis County requiring only a high school diploma, just 16% pay enough to support a family of two adults and two children without a second income.

Areas "Hard to Count" by Census Mapped

(Cross-posted from CAPCOG Census Coordination Blog)

The “Hard to Count (HTC) Score” was developed by the U.S. Census Bureau to help identify areas that might be difficult to enumerate during Census 2010. The HTC score was calculated for every Census tract in the nation using twelve socioeconomic, demographic, and housing variables from Census 2000 that were correlated with high non-response rates. Online Maps have been developed showing this data for the Capital Area.

Online Map HTC Score 70+ (click for here for interactive map)



Online Map HTC Score 30-69 (click for interactive map)


For assistance with the map contact Chris Ramser, 512-916-6184.

Hard to Count Scores range from 0-132. Areas with the highest scores (e.g., over 70) are likely to have relatively high nonresponse and undercount rates, while areas with the lowest scores are likely to be areas with low rates. These high HTC areas may warrant increased level of focus for Census outreach activities.

The first map developed by the Capital Area Council of Governments shows the location of Census tracts in our region with a 70+ HTC score, while the second shows tracts with a score 30 to 69. When you visit one of the maps, click on a shaded area to view Census 2000 data about that Census tract. The field names in the table have been abbreviated, but this definition file contains an explanation of each variable. Also, the KML or KMZ files for each map are posted below for download, allowing users to view the data in Google Earth.

KML or KMZ files
HTC Score 70+ KML

HTC Score 30-69 KMZ

KML and KMZ files can be viewed in the free software, Google Earth, which provides for additional functionality. Google Earth contains preloaded data such as schools, churches and other places of interest that may be used to identify partners or locations for outreach efforts. Users can also select an individual tract or tracts with a score over a certain number.

Recession Impacts on Workers by Age Group in Austin-Round Rock

Thanks to the hard work of folks at the Texas Workforce Commission and the U.S. Census Bureau, we now have a full year of recession data for Austin-Round Rock in the Quarterly Workforce Indicators program. This is noteworthy because it allows us to take a look at how the first year of the recession (2007Q4 to 2008Q4) impacted workers by age group.

Most local economists and the media have noted that Austin-Round Rock came to the recession later than most other places in the U.S., and this new data tells a similar story. You can see in the charts below that job growth ranged from 1.0% to 2.1% between 2007Q4 and 2008Q4 for workers age 25 to 54, and workers age 55+ made even larger gains. You can also see the impacts of people dialing back on consumer expenditures for restaurants, retail, and other types of businesses where younger workers are concentrated. Year-to-year job growth for workers age 14 to 21 dipped into negative territory in 2008Q4 for the first time since Austin-Round Rock was struggling to get out of the last recession in 2002-2003.

These numbers will likely take a turn for the worse when 2009Q1 data is released, but I’m surprised that we didn’t see larger losses in 2008, particularly in the younger end of the labor market. We’ll send out an update when the 2009 data starts coming out.



Click on the image to enlarge it.



Brian Kelsey

Blog Feedback

After a flurry of initial activity, comments on our blog here have been conspicuously absent lately. We want this blog to serve as a medium for discussing regional trends--and the data and tools we can use to understand them--so we'd like to get your feedback on a few questions:

1. Is this blog interesting and useful?
2. Are you using any of the data or tools highlighted here in your own work?
3. What other topics would you like to see covered?
4. Do you prefer the email-style newsletter we used before?

If you'd rather email your comments to us, you can send them to Brian at bkelsey@capcog.org.

Thanks in advance for your help.

BK