We recently received new forecast data for the Austin-Round Rock economy from IHS Global Insight. According to the experts there, we should be seeing signs of growth again in 2009Q4, and we may even be there already. Here’s a chart showing year-to-year change in real gross metro product for Austin-Round Rock since the start of the recession in 2007Q4:
(click image for larger version)
If you look at their data on a quarter-to-quarter basis, the Austin-Round Rock economy may already be in positive territory. Global Insight estimates that real gross metro product for our region declined in 2008Q4 (-1.5%) and 2009Q1 (-0.6%), and then reversed direction in 2009Q2 (+0.9%). So, depending on your preference for how we run the numbers, this could be really good news.
Here are some other 2009 predictions for Austin-Round Rock from their August release:
Population growth: 59,520 (+3.5%)
Housing starts: virtually unchanged overall from 2008 at around 11,300 total units, but different stories in single-family versus multi-family. Global Insight predicts a 27% increase in private single-family housing starts and a 32% decline in private multi-family housing starts.
Employment: -4,700 jobs or -0.6%. I think this may be a little rosy, because they have unemployment topping out at 7.1% in 2009Q4, and we learned today from the Texas Workforce Commission that we hit 7.3% in July.
Income: flat…again. Global Insight estimates that real per capita income fell below $31,000 in 2008Q3, and we’re currently no better off in this respect than we were in 2004.
We’ll get the next round of data from them in November. Stay tuned.
Brian Kelsey
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment