Counting Californians

As one of the fastest growing regions in the US, people here love to talk about growth. Whether it’s the familiar refrain of our region doubling in size over the next 30 years at an ABJ or Envision Central Texas summit or John Kelso at the Statesman welcoming another group of Californians to Austin, growth is a constant topic of discussion. In fact, of the 200 or so data requests we field each year, population information is easily the most popular request.

We got a fresh perspective on growth this week from the IRS’s latest release of migration data for 2007-2008. The IRS uses tax returns to compile data on people moving from county to county around the US and publishes the data on its website each year. Demographers and economists use this data to calculate population estimates, among other things, and we use it to track development trends in our ten-county region. Obviously, the data doesn’t catch people who don’t file taxes, but it’s a good proxy.

As you would expect, the recession and housing crisis put downward pressure on migration in 2007-2008—it’s difficult to pick up and move if you can’t sell your house or find a new job. However, this being the place where population doubles every 30 years, we still saw some gains, especially in Williamson County.

Here is the approximate number of people moving to each county in 2007-2008 with change from the previous year noted in parentheses:

Bastrop 4,880 (-1.3%)
Blanco 641 (11.1%)
Burnet 2,806 (-3.6%)
Caldwell 2,383 (3.2%)
Fayette 1,180 (6.4%)
Hays 13,475 (0.9%)
Lee 857 (15.2%)
Llano 1,192 (-8.7%)
Travis 59,128 (1.6%)
Williamson 37,837 (1.7%)

Looking at the net effect of people moving in and people moving out, Williamson County was the clear leader with a net gain of 14,042 people in 2007-2008—more than twice the number in Travis County and three times Hays County. And while it may be easy to spot the California license plates on I-35, people moving here from other parts of Texas still make up the vast majority of new residents. For example, 63% of people moving to Travis County during 2007-2008 came from another Texas county, compared to only 9% from California.

Check out this neat interactive map created by Chris Ramser here showing county-by-county migration to Travis County. Click on a county to see its value.

We’ll also be posting a few maps to the CAPCOG Information Clearinghouse and covering this in more detail in our annual State of the Region presentation next month. For a look back at our analysis of this data last year, check out Can We Blame California? on our website. Brian Kelsey